China may surpass the United States in its quest to create artificial intelligence that is more intelligent than humans, but this innovative technology also runs the risk of weakening the hold that the ruling Communist Party has over the second-largest economy in the world.
Max Tegmark, a well-known AI scientist, told that artificial general intelligence (AGI) is closer than we realize and that the story of the U.S. and China engaging in a geopolitical race to develop the most advanced AI is a “suicide race.”
Although there isn’t a single definition for artificial general intelligence (AGI), it’s generally understood to be AI that can outsmart people.
Apps like ChatGPT, which let users ask a chatbot questions, have become extremely popular. However, other AI startups are vying to create the next generation of AI, which will be intelligent on par with humans.
According to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, AGI might be possible by 2025. Many others believe that real AGI is still a long way off, even though other well-known figures in the tech industry share this opinion.
In addition to the competition between technology companies, there is a geopolitical conflict between the United States and China for control of sectors ranging from artificial intelligence to chips. Tegmark argued that this is not the appropriate perspective, as it is frequently depicted as a competition to be the first to adopt the most recent technology.
“I regard this battle, this geopolitical battle to establish AGI first, as a ‘hopium war,'” Tegmark stated in a recent interview. “I call it the ‘hopium war’ because it’s fueled by … delusional hope that we can control AGI.”
Tegmark is the president of the Future of Life Institute, a think tank that authored a letter last year urging AI laboratories to suspend the development of advanced AI systems. Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, was among the prominent technologists who signed the correspondence. Tegmark is apprehensive about the rapid advancement of AI, which has few safeguards in place and no means of control should it begin to surpass humans.
“We are significantly closer to constructing AGI than to determining how to manage it.” Tegmark stated, “Consequently, the AGI race is not an arms race; it is a suicide race.”
Is China concerned about AGI?
According to Tegmark, China has minimal motivation to construct AGI. The AI scientist recalled a narrative in which Elon Musk informed him of a “high-level meeting” that the Tesla CEO had with Chinese government officials in early 2023. Tegmark stated that Musk told the Chinese government that the Communist Party would no longer have control over China if AGI were to be constructed. Instead, the superintelligence would be in charge.
A robust response was received by [Musk]. “Some of them had not considered that, and China issued its initial AI regulations less than a month later,” Tegmark stated, alluding to the new regulation for generative AI.
No, the United States is not required to persuade China to refrain from constructing AGI. Despite the absence of the United States, Tegmark asserted that the Chinese government would have an incentive to refrain from constructing it in order to maintain control.
“[The] last thing they want is to lose that control.”
China’s approach to artificial intelligence or AI
AI is a strategic priority for the Chinese government. Big companies in the country, including Alibaba, Huawei, and Tencent, have been creating their own AI models. These models are also improving in terms of their capabilities.
Also, China was among the first countries in the world to implement regulations regarding various aspects of AI. Any information that appears to contradict Beijing’s ideology is blocked, and the country’s internet is extensively censored. In China, it is widely recognized that chatbots are prohibited from responding to inquiries regarding politics and subjects that the Communist Party considers sensitive. Additionally, OpenAI’s ChatGPT is prohibited.
As a result, the nation’s strategy regarding AI is an endeavor to promote innovation while simultaneously balancing its own interests. In terms of AGI, analysts anticipate that China will adopt a comparable strategy.
In light of concerns that such technologies could undermine Party authority, he would not anticipate that China would restrict its own AI capabilities. Kendra Schaefer, a partner at consultancy Trivium China, stated that similar predictions regarding the internet were all erroneous. While establishing a techno-regulatory apparatus that restricts AGI’s domestic activities, China will endeavor to dominate AGI.
AI conflict between the United States and China
In spite of Tegmark’s assertion that the quest to construct AGI is a “hopium war,” geopolitics remains a central concern in the development of the technology between the United States and China.
Abishur Prakash, founder and geopolitical strategist at The Geopolitical Business, a Toronto-based strategy advisory firm, stated that China is currently observing AI through a dual lens: geopolitical power and domestic development.
China aspires to alter the global power dynamic by implementing AI, such as the development of a novel export model. In parallel, Prakash stated that China is interested in enhancing its economy through innovative methods, including government efficacy and business applications.
The United States has implemented a policy of attempting to limit China’s access to critical technologies, particularly semiconductors such as those manufactured by Nvidia, which are essential for the development of more sophisticated AI models. China has responded by endeavoring to establish its own semiconductor industry.
Will the United States and China collaborate on AI regulations?
Technologists have issued cautionary statements regarding certain hazards and dangers that may arise upon the eventual arrival of AGI. One hypothesis posits that AI will be capable of independently designing new systems and enhancing itself in the absence of guardrails.
Tegmark is of the opinion that the United States and China will both recognize any potential dangers, necessitating that their respective governments establish their own regulations regarding AI safety.
Therefore, Tegmark’s optimistic course of action is for the United States and China to unilaterally implement national safety standards in order to prevent their own companies from causing damage and constructing uncontrollable AGI. This is not to placate the rival superpowers, but rather to safeguard themselves, he stated.
However, following that, there is a fascinating phase in which the United States and China will contemplate how to ensure that North Korea does not construct AGI or any other weapon. Additionally, the United States and China are now motivated to encourage the rest of the world to participate in an AGI moratorium.
In fact, governments are currently collaborating to establish regulations and frameworks for AI. The United States and China were both in attendance at an AI safety summit that was hosted by the United Kingdom last year. The purpose of the summit was to deliberate on potential guardrails around the technology.
However, the regulation and rules surrounding AI are presently fragmented. The AI Act, the first significant global law regulating the technology, was implemented by the European Union this year. While numerous other nations have yet to establish any regulations, China has its own set of regulations.
Tegmark’s aspiration for AI safety coordination is shared by others.
Ideally, nations will be motivated to collaborate and self-regulate when the risks of competition exceed the benefits, according to Schaefer of Trivium China.
She stated that there is a desire on the part of Beijing to establish a global governance body, as some Chinese policymakers have advocated for foreseeing that prospective issue and establishing an international governance body under the UN, similarly to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
