For many years, blue-collar people have been the focus of political messaging. While visiting areas such as Detroit or Pittsburgh, politicians may meet with waiters at a cafe to promote raising the minimum wage, tour a factory to highlight employment growth, or tell stories about their family’s hardworking roots.
However, white-collar professions have recently received increased attention. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is in the vanguard of this movement.
In August, the Republican governor voiced worry that “some of these white-collar jobs… could end up being obsolete” as a result of AI developments. At a time when AI “is forecast to reduce a significant number of white-collar jobs,” he called the H-1B visa program “especially galling” in September. Additionally, he expressed concern in November regarding forecasts that AI would “really undercut a lot of jobs — a lot of white-collar jobs.”
He added, “I don’t think that’s a good thing. Why would we subsidize something that could potentially cause problems for folks?”
DeSantis’s ability to predict the future has played a significant role in his political rise. He presented himself as a pioneer in opposing Covid rules. Additionally, years before President Donald Trump included transgender problems in his closing remarks for the 2024 campaign, he was at the forefront of right-wing attacks on these subjects. He is now a prominent political voice on AI skepticism ahead of an impending change in American politics that would amplify the concerns of white-collar workers, a cohort that is becoming more Democratic and has college degrees.
Sens. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., and Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., as well as California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, are among the other officials raising the alarm.
This is a significant development in American politics, which has long been focused on the concerns and grievances of blue-collar people who have seen manufacturing jobs disappear due to trade agreements and technology. More recently, these workers fueled Trump’s rise and prompted both parties to realign their industrial policy, with Republican and Democratic campaigns emphasizing the need to reshore manufacturing jobs and rebuild the nation’s industrial foundation.
Former Rep. Brad Carson, D-Okla., wrote in an email that he believes most political leaders will be too late by the time they address the probable displacement of white-collar professionals.
“We spent decades watching manufacturing communities deteriorate before politicians paid serious attention, and by then the damage was irreversible,” said Carson, a former Defense Department official who is now a leader of the super PAC Public First Action, which has advocated for more significant regulation of AI. “This time, the difference is in speed and breadth. White-collar displacement might occur considerably faster and more extensively than deindustrialization, as these workers vote, donate, and live in swing districts. So the political pressure will increase soon.”
“College-educated professionals in suburban districts whose mortgage payments are suddenly at risk are a very different political force than a hollowed-out factory town,” according to him.
The worries stem from insiders in the AI sector publicly stating that their technology will cause employers to lay off workers. AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and raise unemployment by 10% to 20% over the next five years, according to Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, the company that created Claude. The richest man in the world, Elon Musk, whose business xAI created Grok, declared on X in October that “AI and robots will replace all jobs.” In a statement that highlighted the “transformative” potential of AI, Amazon announced 14,000 layoffs that same month. Musk stated the next month that he thought “work will be optional” in 20 years.
According to a recent NBC News poll, 57% of voters believe that the hazards of AI outweigh the advantages. A comparable percentage of managers and white-collar and blue-collar workers share this opinion. According to the poll, 50% of blue-collar workers and 74% of white-collar workers reported using AI in the previous two months.
Gina Raimondo became the administration’s point person on artificial intelligence while serving as commerce secretary under President Joe Biden, cultivating connections in the sector. She stated that the shift will be “brutal” and that technology will “transform every industry.”
Raimondo, a former governor of Rhode Island, recalls her father’s job loss following the state’s decline in manufacturing. She claimed that her opinions on AI had been influenced by her experiences.
If certain groups “get disproportionately hurt and we don’t take care of them in this transition… that’s going to cause a level of societal, political, and economic disruption that this country can’t afford,” she believes that “slowing down innovation is a bad idea.”
She stated that policymakers should encourage businesses to refrain from mass layoffs and offer transition funds to workers whose industries are drastically changing. She continued, “Unemployment policy will need to change from focusing on those who are unemployed now to being able to predict who will be unemployed in a year or more.” Since experimenting is simpler at the state level, a lot of things will need to begin there.
“I find it fascinating how many lawmakers from both parties and AI executives just sort of throw up their hands and say, ‘Well, what are we going to do?'” she added.
There are already indications of a white-collar job slowdown. In November, a record 25% of unemployed workers held a four-year college degree. A team of Stanford academics also released a report revealing that workers aged 22 to 25 in industries with the most exposure to generative AI had seen a 16% relative reduction in employment since late 2022. According to the most recent jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the United States lost 92,000 jobs in February, marking the fifth time in nine months that the labor market has contracted.
The Missouri senator Hawley claimed that while on a recent visit to Vanderbilt University, he was struck by the college seniors who came up to him and told how difficult it was to obtain an entry-level job, pointing out that employers claimed AI was eliminating the need for such roles.
“Now, how much of that is true and how much is simply an excuse? “Who knows,” he replied. “But when you look at the unemployment rate for recent college graduates, it is shockingly high. And when you look at the whole economy, you have to be concerned about the possibility of job losses among white-collar professionals.
Hawley thinks Washington officials aren’t paying enough attention to this. He cited legislation he and Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., introduced in November to monitor the amount of jobs lost to AI as a starting point.
Hawley declared, “We’re looking at a massive collapse of the middle class.” “We just can’t let that happen.”
However, the impact of AI on the white-collar employment market is not all doom and gloom. A number of economists, technologists, and political leaders have linked the rise of AI to previous advances that altered rather than destroyed work. One frequently cited example is the rise of the internet, which spawned entirely new sectors. Meanwhile, others have claimed that AI business executives’ estimates are intended to make the technology appear more impressive to investors. Musk, who has made some of the most audacious claims, is so frequently incorrect that astute bettors have gained by betting against his predictions.
Trump and government officials have attempted to calm fears about AI, which is rapidly expanding and is a key component of Trump’s economic strategy. In an interview last month, Trump dismissed concerns that AI would eliminate jobs.
“They thought the internet would do everything, and that robots would kill jobs. “Everything is going to kill jobs,” he warned. “And you end up, if you’re smart, doing great.”
63% of American adults believe AI advancements will result in a general decline in employment, according to an Economist/YouGov poll published last month. This is almost twice as many as those who said in a 1999 NPR/Kaiser/Harvard Technology survey that the internet will result in a decline in employment.
Republican strategist Nathan Brand stated that concerns about AI-related job losses are unfounded. First, he stated that the industry’s increasing demand for energy and infrastructure will lead to a rise in blue-collar jobs, which will then bolster white-collar jobs.
“Politically, it’s going to ultimately fall back into these camps of innovation versus no innovation,” Brand pointed out. “Traditionally, conservatives have been on the side of innovation.”
AI’s influence on politics is still in its infancy. There are no apparent partisan splits on AI-related concerns as leaders find their footing. So far, government leaders have prioritized electricity bill increases associated with the rapid expansion of AI data centers, kid safety, and the employment of AI in the military over job creation.
Raimondo stated that policymakers have paid more attention to issues such as data center expenses since they have a broader impact than job prospects for white-collar workers. Furthermore, with many white-collar professionals earning good income, “it’s harder to feel bad for them,” she said.
However, she stated, “I do think that will change if law firms stop hiring lawyers or if accounting firms cut their accounting staff in half.” “You’ll notice a change rather quickly.”
According to a recent Anthropic analysis, among other white-collar occupations, computer programmers, customer service agents, and financial and investment analysts have the highest exposure to AI and are hence most vulnerable to its substitution.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat from Connecticut, stated that he is unsure of the best course of action but has considered working on additional legislation specifically related to the possible effects of AI on jobs.
“There’s a lot of well-founded focus on the dangers of AI in consumer goods or weapons, whether it’s arms that may be out of control or a lack of privacy,” Blumenthal stated. “But [while] the other risks may seem hypothetical, this employment challenge is going to be real, so it might be the one that resonates with regular Americans.”
On the campaign trail, opposing super PACs supported by the AI industry are beginning to pour money into critical midterm contests, while potential 2028 presidential candidates such as DeSantis have compared themselves with potential opponents on AI.
Americans are now “learning that no job is safe,” according to Alex Bores, a member of the New York state Assembly and a candidate for Congress in the fiercely competitive 12th District. Rival AI-funded super PACs are both in favor of and against Bores’ proposed new rules on the AI sector.
Bores, a Democrat, stated, “I don’t know that historically, when you have large sudden unemployment, especially among young people, especially among men, that that leads to a more inclusive, progressive, fact-based politics.” This frequently results in extremely reactionary politics. And I’m really concerned about how that could affect our political discourse.
A possible loss of white-collar jobs could resemble the “China shock” that shook the blue-collar employment market decades ago, according to a number of elected leaders. When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, imports into the United States skyrocketed, leading to a loss of manufacturing jobs. That came after a thirty-year period during which the industrial industries and populations of cities and towns—many of which were in the Rust Belt—collapsed due to growing automation and globalization.
Saikat Chakrabarti, a progressive House candidate running in California’s 11th District, stated that he has spoken to people in the AI sector who think the government should invest in these businesses in order to better address problems like possible white-collar displacement.
“The highest-earning workers have never been the first to be affected by automation,” Chakrabarti stated. He noted that the white-collar workforce, which is concentrated in cities, is “a politically powerful bloc of our society,”.
According to the most recent NBC News survey, blue-collar workers lean Republican by nine percentage points, while white-collar workers lean Democratic by eight.
Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., who represents a Silicon Valley-centered district, believes authorities must “unite the anxiety of blue-collar workers and white-collar workers” rather than pitting them against each other.
Last month, Khanna and Sanders attended a combined town hall on AI policy at Stanford, where Khanna outlined his AI plan, which includes a federal employment guarantee for young Americans and those looking for entry-level positions. Sanders published a paper in October that estimated that over the next ten years, automation and artificial intelligence might displace almost 100 million white-collar and blue-collar jobs.
“Blue-collar jobs are no longer the only jobs at risk,” stated Khanna, a prospective presidential candidate in 2028. “It’s also white-collar jobs, and that creates a coalition that can appeal to suburban towns, factory towns, and rural America in addition to urban centers.”
Hawley, another prospective 2028 candidate, has long positioned himself in the Senate Republican caucus as an economic policy outlier. He stated that leaders should learn from the decades-long breakdown of American manufacturing jobs and apply it to the upcoming probable white-collar job displacement: “The importance of good-paying work cannot ever be lost or taken for granted.”
“What we learned out of that is job displacement destroys entire communities,” he told reporters. “It destroys families.” It ruins the country’s fabric. Work is definitely necessary. People must be able to find well-paying jobs that allow them to support their families. And we must prioritize that in our AI policy.”
